Atelier WeekNotes w/c 30 June 2025
ATELIER MANAGEMENT-Progress on 2025 intentions.-Emerging clusters. INITIATIVES. CUSP Bulletin.
Still a little on catch up (London Climate Action Week is in the rearview mirror, but I’ve not written about it yet — sorry). But this week has some important stuff about the direction of the Atelier, and a new initiative. Hurray!
ATELIER MANAGEMENT
-Half way through the year.
-Progress on 2025 intentions.
-Emerging clusters.
_Using futures for decision-making.
_For-impact (mostly also for-profit) start-up ecosystem.
_Culture upstream of politics.
_What about the rest?
INITIATIVES
-Exploring the next version of the horizon-scanning that was the CUSP Bulletin.
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ATELIER MANAGEMENT
Half way through the year
Earlier in the year I articulated some intentions for 2025. Now that we are half way through the year, now seems a good moment to review them, and take stock of some repeated domains which might (shock-horror!) become areas of specialism and/or focus.
Progress on 2025 intentions
1/ CATALYST & ENABLER.
Overarching: Embody a practice of ‘Deep Transformation’. GOING WELL. I'd argue that the Absurd Intelligence (AI) work is very much a practice of Deep Transformation (more than strong reform of the mainstream, using the insights of the radical resistance). Where I have struggled is to make the time to really have a more detailed description of the practice of Deep Transformation to use as a jumping off point for explicit learning.
Job search. GOING WELL. The role in AI is currently 3 days a week, and until the end of August. However, there is a strong chance it will go on for longer, and even be a job.
Atelier of What’s Next: 'learning by trying' phase. GOING OK. Lots of learning by trying happening, through the AI work.
Be a’wise guru who enables others’ through Powerful Times, ISR module & podcast. IN REACTIVE MODE. While I am busy with AI, all podcasts have gone into a reactive mode, where I will do one if something compelling comes up. But otherwise, a low priority.
2/ CONNECTOR.
Be active in finding and contributing to the professional networks I need. MORE DELIBERATION NEEDED. I have been going to many events, especially through London Climate Action Week (LCAW). But all a bit reactive and arbitrary. I need to work through more on what relationships and networks that are the ones which fit with what I want to do.
Edmund Hillary Foundation (EHF). NOT STARTED. I did go to the EHF Innovation Summit in February. That made me realise how little I am turning to that particular network. I haven't really done anything about it since. Action needed.
3/ PRACTICE-BASED RESEARCHER.
Practice learning cycle. NOT STARTED. As mentioned above, not made my learning cycle explicit enough.
Learn by course & reading for specific skills and domains to keep me at frontiers. MIXED. Have done a course on AI, and read Ethan Mollick's excellent Co-Intelligence. Otherwise, all stalled (Executive Functions; Sprint / Agile; Design thinking & Ontological design; Resilience; Commercial / entrepreneurial streak; Fundraising).
WHAT NEXT
Overall, a mixed picture. But better than I feared.
A more detailed description of what 'a practice of Deep Transformation' means, as a proposition to have focussed learning-by-doing questions about. Go through a series of learning cycles, all documented.
Make choices on the professional networks.
Prioritise learning from the long-list of: AI; Executive Functions; Sprint / Agile; Design thinking & Ontological design; Resilience; Commercial / entrepreneurial streak; Fundraising
Emerging clusters
A few weeks ago I realised that the work of the Atelier was gathering around 3 clusters. Two of these are not surprising (in retrospect), while the third is, but in a good way.
Using futures for decision-making
I'm tempted to call this 'Anticipatory Governance', but currently I find that a bit...over the top.
Scope: Using futures for decision-making in (so far) large organisations wanting to contribute to a sustainable world.
Advantage: Expertise built up using various (qualitative) futures techniques while at Forum for the Future. (Hence, this one is not a surprise.) Also, being a curious connector by default, with (relatively) wide and diverse networks.
Objective: A pipeline of projects which are impactful in their own right, and also lead to starting initiatives which can go in the Atelier. Even better: turn a method into a repeatable product / service or into something which others use.
Atelier activity: selected (where *= live).
Exploring the next version of the horizon-scanning that was the CUSP Bulletin*. (See below.)
Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI) State of Sustainable Shipping (SoSS).
Research questions: To follow.
For-impact (mostly also for-profit) start-up ecosystem
If 'using futures' is not a surprise because of my track record, this one is not a surprise, because the start-up ecosystem is one of the places where new things are formed.
Scope: The for-impact (mostly also for-profit) start-up ecosystem, mostly in London.
Advantage: Well, the futures perspective (see above) and also systems practices help. Plus my coaching approach, plus my curiosity and desire to connect people.
Objective: For now, to contribute in ways that are helpful, and to learn about how the Atelier might operate.
Activity: (where *= live).
Venture Partner* at Conduit Connect.
Mentor* at The Greenhouse, the accelerator at Undaunted, Imperial's climate innovation hub.
Fellow* at Zinc, the mission-orientated VC firm.
Learning questions: What lessons from venture building apply to initiative building?
Culture upstream of politics
This one is the surprise but in a good way. The surprise is that I would find myself -- first degree: physicist; first job: auditor -- in this world. But, it is clear that capital P Politics is very stuck, in ways that are letting people down (to put it mildly). Progress on a whole host of issues I care about relies on, frankly, not having a Reform government. I've not served my dues in a party, which are pretty ossified anyway (hence why Reform can succeed). What is there to do? The culture that is upstream of politics.
Also, a lesson in making choices. I followed my nose, took advantage of some immense luck (bumping into someone on the train) and was open to what might happen. The 'random' walk (which wasn't completely random, as I kept having the energy to explore) led to here.
Scope: Big C and small c culture that influences how people relate to each other, and generates the momentum for political choices in the direction of a better world.
Advantage: Willingness to explore at the frontier. Strong relationships with the leading experiment.
Objective: The 2029 general election: Reform far less successful than currently predicted, and the next UK government committed to profound climate action.
Activity: (where *= live). Absurd intelligence and its 'extended universe'*.
Learning questions: To follow.
What about the rest?
Not everything I have done over as the Atelier fits into these three clusters. Probably most notable by its absence is being an Honorary Lecturer at UCL Institute for Sustainability Leadership. Right now I see that as a foundation, in the sense of what I learn (in order to teach) and what I hear from the researchers is useful across all these clusters.
WHAT NEXT
Develop research questions for each of these clusters (which match with long-term questions).
Try out having focus. (Hahahahahahaha.)
INITIATIVES
Exploring the next version of the horizon-scanning that was the CUSP Bulletin
Back in late Jan, I wrote that the weekly Bulletin from the Centre for Understanding Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP) was stopping, and wondering if it could be enhanced. I had reached out to the current readers, to see if anyone was interested.
One person came back, Andrew Curry. This was great news. Not only is Andrew the current Director of Futures at the School of International Futures (SOIF), and the producers of an amazing scanning newsletter, Just Two Things. (Subscribe, if you haven't already.) He also wrote – with Anthony Hodgson – the first academic paper on the Three Horizons method and a paper on comparative scenarios methods, with Wendy Schultz. Which is to say, he knows his stuff.
Then, I went to the launch of the Chatham House Sustainability Accelerator's new research project, The Rift (my write up here).
Over the last month, I have been pulling these strands together. Last week, two things happened. I was accepted as a CUSP Fellow, so taking on the development from their point of view. And, Andrew and I met with David Gunn, the head of Sustainability Accelerator at Chatham House. Things are underway!
The overview (from the CUSP website)
As a CUSP Fellow, David is exploring how curated foresight tools can help sustainability practitioners navigate deep uncertainty and make more informed decisions for a just and sustainable future.
His project reimagines the MAPSS Bulletin—CUSP’s respected weekly scan for sustainability professionals—by asking: What if key actors had regular access to a horizon scan designed specifically to support effective action in an unpredictable world?
This work is made possible by a convergence of timely developments. With Ian Christie stepping back from producing the Bulletin, there is space to evolve the format. At the same time, futurist Andrew Curry is working to codify key foresight methods that can inform a wider community of practice.
These shifts align with The Rift, a new two-year research cycle from Chatham House’s Sustainability Accelerator, which asks how to act wisely when we treat the present as the beginning of a fundamentally new era. David’s project is situated within The Rift‘s research strand on decision-making under uncertainty. It takes forward an existing approach—the MAPSS Bulletin—and prototypes a new kind of sustainability scanning: one that is not only insightful but actively used. Drawing on deep expertise in foresight, AI, and collective intelligence, the project builds on an established expert community and institutional platform to reach broader audiences of key sustainability practitioners.
WHAT NEXT
Please get in touch if you know of any great examples of horizon-scanning out there? Especially ones which have one or more of:
Play with the form of outputs so they engage more than just our analytical brain?
Use collective intelligence methods to curate / prioritise / sense-make as you go.
Use AI as part of info gathering, sense-making and/or engaging participants.
A prototype! (In the coming months.)